Prediction Probability for Occurrence Categories:

             Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) assigns a probability expressed in percent for the likelihood

             that a predicted event will occur, or not occur.   The Probability for occurrence is defined in

             three categories of risk:   Low (not expected to occur)

                                                              Moderate (possible but not expected to occur).  

                                                              High (Expected to occur)

                                                                   

                                                 

Prediction Examples:   "Basic Prediction does not include a Prediction Discussion

 

 

 Example #1    2010 - Prediction  (issued in December prior to the 2010 season)

         

          Zone 1

          Metro NYC, Long Island and the Southern New England Coastline​              

           ​                                                                                     

          Predictions for 2010                                                            Predicted Risk            Event Liklihood

         Hurricane conditions                                                        15 %  Low Risk                Not Expected to Occur

          Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs                      15 %  Low Risk                 Not Expected to Occur

          Tropical Storm conditions                                               15 %  Low Risk                 Not Expected to Occur

 

          Summary Discussion of Forecast: 

         *Note - Not available with the Basic Prediction Package

         *Note - The Standard package would have included the discussion below

          This zone is on the cusp for entering the strongest hurricane cycle for this region

          in 50 years.  However; the 2011 season will not have hurricane or tropical storm conditions within this zone - all activity

          will go out to sea well south of New England and Long Island.

 

 

Example #2

 

          Zone 1

          Metro NYC, Long Island and the Southern New England Coastline​              

           ​                                                                       

           2011- Prediction   (issued in December prior to the 2011 season)

                                                                                              Predicted Risk           Event Liklihood

          Hurricane conditions                                                       60 %  High Risk                Expected to Occur (Hurricane Irene did occur)
           Major Hurricane - if a hurricane occurs                      40 %  Moderate Risk      Possible - but not likely

           Tropical Storm conditions                                               65 %  High Risk                Expected to Occur

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          Summary Discussion of Forecast:   (not available with the Basic Package) 

          “Northeast States Entering“ strongest hurricane cycle for this region in 50 years”.

           Analysis of the GWO *Climate Pulse Technology (patent pending) Hurricane Model predicts a high risk for hurricane

          and/or tropical storm conditions within this zone in 2011. The PFM indicates that this zone entered a very active cycle in

           2011.  When this cycle occurs,  this zone typically  experiences a hurricane. The tropical cyclones are expected to come

          up from the south to southeast and likely continue north and northeast along the mid-Atlantic coast toward Long Island

           and the southern New England coast 

 

         *note.. Hurricane Irene was a major CAT 3 hurricane and did pass right over eastern North Carolina in 2011.

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