2-Year Prediction
December 2024 into December 2026
Tracking La Niña and Next El Niño
- Find Out What Will Occur -
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1. ENSO - Expert Analysis and Discussion: Updated 01 November 2024
GWO Predicted 10-Months in Advance - El Niño would form by July 2024
a. Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
ENSO Neutral Conditions - into December
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 10 July 2024 to 31 July 2024 (from to bottom in the graphic below).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-weeks from 02 October to 25 October 2024 - the area of cooler than normal surface water (blue colors in top panel) has not enlarged or strengthened due to the lack of upwelling of the colder than normal subsurface water below.
The Subsurface Water (left graphic) has not strengthened or enlarged in area during the past 6 weeks, and this is delaying upwelling of cooler water to the surface - and delaying the formation of a La Nina event.
Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through December.
GWO's 2-Year Prediction into December 2026 purhcase here
b. NOAA - ENSO Neutral - La Niña) Watch - updated 28 October 2024
La Niña Watch ENSO-neutral conditions are present.
ENSO-neutral conditions are present.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below-average in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025
2. Current Conditions - Expert Analysis by GWO - Updated 01 November 2024
a. Tropical Pacific Ocean Subsurface Temperatures
(down to 250 meters) - see figure 1 below
For an El Niño or La Niña to Form - the subsurface water must warm or cool dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer or cooler than normal water upwell to the surface.
El Niño events are associated with much warmer than normal surface and subsurface temperatures.
La Niña events are the opposite and are associated with much cooler than normal surface and subsurface temperatures.
During the period from 22 July to 10 September 2024 (top to bottom panels) -
the area of colder than normal subsurface water has strengthened and enlarged in area - but is not upwelling to the surface across much of the region. It is beginning to upwell to the surface in the east-central portion of the tropical equatorial area and upwelling will strengthen and enlarge in area during the period from late September into November.
Neutral ENSO conditions will continue late September into October with a transition to La Nina conditions around late October or November.
Find Out When the next El Niño will begin - and end
2- Year GWO Predictions
La Niña and Next El Niño Predictions click here
b. Surface Water Temperatures: Niño 3.4 Region
(where El Nino events typically form)
The graphic panels (below left) show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water)
During the period from 31 August to 15 October 2024 (top to bottom panels) -
the area of colder than normal subsurface water remained about the same during the past 6 weeks - and is not upwelling to the surface in the Eastern area of the Equatorial Pacific to the west of South American.
The lack of intensification and arial coverage has delayed upwelling of colder water to the surface - and thus has delayed the formation of a La Nina event.
GWO's 2-year ENSO prediction covers what will occur from November into December 2026.
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years
3. Graphics - by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)
Current Conditions and Analysis
Updated 01 November 2024
Find out when El Niño will end and what comes next
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Image to Enlarge
Subsurface Temperatures
Tropical Pacific Ocean
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water)
During the period from 31 August to 15 October 2024 (top to bottom panels) -
the area of colder than normal subsurface water remained about the same during the past 6 weeks - and is not upwelling to the surface in the Eastern area of the Equatorial Pacific to the west of South American.
The lack of intensification and arial coverage has delayed upwelling of colder water to the surface - and thus has delayed the formation of a La Nina event.
GWO's 2-year ENSO prediction covers what will occur from November into December 2026.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Images to Enlarge
- Sample -
Subsurface Temperatures
During a Delveloping
El Nino
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño. Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America. Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Past 4 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 10 July 2024 to 31 July 2024 (from to bottom in the graphic below).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-weeks from 02 October to 25 October 2024 - the area of cooler than normal surface water (blue colors in top panel) has not enlarged or strengthened due to the lack of upwelling of the colder than normal subsurface water below.
The Subsurface Water (left graphic) has not strengthened or enlarged in area during the past 6 weeks, and this is delaying upwelling of cooler water to the surface - and delaying the formation of a La Nina event.
Neutral ENSO conditions will continue through December.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into Junet of 2025.
Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.
Click here for GWO's 2-year
predictions
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 10-years.
Nino Region 3.4
East Central Tropical Pacific
Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperatures have cooled only slowly during the past 2 months - but as of 25 October the cooling has stopped due to a slow down in the upwelling of colder subsurface water to the surface (see graphic on far left)
ENSO Neutral Conditions - neither El Niño nor La Niña Ocean temperature anomalies will continue into December.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2024
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean
El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures
Overview: ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation
The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional
weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.
El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface
water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.
This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier
conditions in other regions.
La Niña phase (cold ocean water phase) is the complete opposite of the El Niño phase. The
typical conditions during an El Niño often flip-flop during the opposite phase of the El Niño - called the
Cold La Niña phase. During this phase the Tropical Pacific surface and subsurface water ocean water
is much colder than normal. This influences typical weather conditions around the world - opposite
of those conditions seen with an El Nino.
The third phase is called the Neutral phase and typically provides weather conditions that are
neither associated with the El Niño phase nor the La Niña Phase. Some regions of the world
also experience typical weather patterns for this phase of the ENSO.
-
2-Year El Niño Prediction - Accurate Look into the Future - into October 2022 more info...
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United States 2021 Winter Predictions - (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures) more info...
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British Isles and Europe 2021 Winter Predictions - (snow, Precipitation and Temperatures) more info...
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Expert Climate Change Speaker - El Nino, Climate Change, Hurricanes more info...
-
TV Interview - David Dilley - Dangerous Climate Change
What the Government and Media has Not Told You !
Video link: click here
Overview of GWO's Climate Research
Climate research by David Dilley of GWO, links the very powerful naturally occurring "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate" to the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. It is the PFM that controls the rhythm of Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and in turn controls naturally occurring climate oscillations.
It is the PFM cycles and the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse that induces cyclical changes in the earth's oceans and atmosphere, and in turn triggers the El Niño, controls seasonal hurricane tracks, historical regional floods-droughts, Global Warming and Cooling cycles, and many other climate weather cycles. GWO has found this Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) as the triggering mechanism that controls recurring cycles of the El Niño, regional hurricane landfalls and other weather/climate cycles.
GWO’s forecast models incorporate the PFM analog years to past climate/weather events in the model forecasts for regional hurricane landfall forecasts, global warming-cooling forecasts, La Niña and El Niño forecasts (see Figure 1 for examples of the PFM relationship to the El Niño). The models provide accurate extended weather/climate cycle outlooks many years into the future, and into the past. (see the Hurricane Services page and Prior GWO Forecasts and Tracks page for past performance of GWO's 2006 through 2014 hurricane and tropical storm forecasts).
The El Niño forms approximately every 3 to 4 years (sometimes 7 years apart) in the tropical South Pacific Ocean (Figure 1). An El Nino normally influences changes in weather patterns, with these changes often taking place in December near Christmas, but not always, such as in 2008-09 when weather patterns changed in August. An El Niño typically develops when a pool of very warm ocean water suddenly moves east from near Australia across the tropical South Pacific, causing disruptions in worldwide weather patterns.
Back in April of 2008, Meteorologist and climate researcher David Dilley of Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO) predicted the strongest El Niño in over 10-years to occur in 2009. The El Niño formed in August and disrupted the 2009 hurricane season.
A moderate El Niño did occur in 2009 just as predicted and caused strong wind shear in the upper atmosphere. This essentially disrupted potential hurricanes form forming, and for those which did form, a rapid demise occurred. Due to the El Niño and climate cycles, no hurricanes made landfall along the coastal areas of the United States.
GWO's *Climate Pulse Prediction Model (patent pending) utilizes naturally occurring interactions between the earth, sun, moon, -oceans and atmosphere to determine the power structure of the "Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate". GWO has found that it is the PFM controls the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse, and various cycles of the climate and weather, including Global Warming and Global Cooling cycles.
A portion of the PFM is a sub cycle of the scientifically proven Miklanovitch Cycles and Lunisolar Procession which regulate the natural rhythm of Earth, and sets up the Earth's Natural Climate Pulse. This acts like plunger pushing and pulling on the earth's atmosphere and oceans. This forcing action displaces the Bermuda High and South Pacific high pressure center from its normal location, and thus setting the stage for the strong El Niño which began in late June of 2009 and ended in April-May 2010.
During non El Niño years, prevailing easterly trade winds keep ocean waters relatively cool in the central South Pacific Region, and in turn causes a warm pool of water to gradually pile up in the
GWO Products: ENSO - Hurricane - Climate Change - Speakers
1. La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
2. Hurricane Zone Forecasts
a. 2 year forecast for 11 zones - "Premium Package"
(issued to clients 9 and 6 months prior to the upcoming hurricane season)
c. 1 year forecast - pick your zone "Standard Package"
3. Hurricane Webinars (see hurricane pages)
3. Earthquake Predictions
a. Prepared for Your Region of Concern (on request)
4 . Climate Change eBook - " Earth's Natural Climate Pulse "
5. Climate Change and Natural Cycle Lectures and Speakers