La Niña - Neutral Conditions - El Niño
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1. ENSO - Expert Analysis and Discussion: Updated 09 April 2025
GWO Predicted 10-Months in Advance - ENSO Neutral Conditions would form by April 2025
a. Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
ENSO Neutral Conditions
As noted in the time series from 19 March 2025 to 09 April 2025 (from to bottom in the graphic above) - the area of cooler than normal surface water (blue colors in top panel) has modified some during the past 4-weeks n response to the modification of the subsurface water below.
As explained in the Subsurface water temperature discussion - the warmer than normal subsurface water has not expanded eastward during the past 7 weeks - and thus the ENSO Neutral Conditions will continue.
As mentioned in our 2-year prediction - the primary ENSO event during 2025 will at times be a very weak La Nina event and at times Neutral Conditions.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur in 2026 and 2027.
Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.
b. NOAA - ENSO Neutral Conditions Present - updated 14 April 2025
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are near-to-below average in the central Pacific Ocean and are above-average in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere summer, with a greater than 50% chance through August-October 2025.
2. Current Conditions - Expert Analysis by GWO - Updated 14 April 2025
a. Tropical Pacific Ocean Subsurface Temperatures
(down to 250 meters) - see figure 1 below
For an El Niño or La Niña to Form - the subsurface water must warm or cool dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer or cooler than normal water upwell to the surface.
El Niño events are associated with much warmer than normal surface and subsurface temperatures.
La Niña events are the opposite and are associated with much cooler than normal surface and subsurface temperatures.
The panels from top to bottom from 17 February to 06 April 2025 - shows warmer than normal subsurface water remaining the same strength and area coverage in the Western Tropical Pacific.
Meanwhile - the colder than normal subsurface water across the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific has modified during the past 7 weeks.
ENSO Neutral Conditions are now occurring (halfway between El Nino and La Nina)
Global Weather Predicted months ago that it would transition to Neutral Conditions by April 2025.
GWO's 2-year ENSO prediction covers what will occur from May 2025 into May 2027.
Find Out When the next El Niño will begin - and end
2- Year GWO Predictions
La Niña and Next El Niño Predictions click here
b. Surface Water Temperatures: Niño 3.4 Region
(where El Nino events typically form)
The Tropical Equatorial Pacific cooler than normal surface water temperatures are continuing to moderate due to the lack of colder water in the subsurface layers below.
Because the warmer than normal subsurface water in the Western Equatorial Pacific has not expanded eastward during the past 7 weeks, there will be little change during the next several months.
Expect ENSO Neutral Conditions to continue. GWO predicted several months ago that this would occur in April and then continue thereafter as ENSO Neutral Conditions but with some flirts to near weak El Nino.
ENSO Neutral Conditions - neither El Niño nor La Niña Ocean temperature anomalies will continue off and on during 2025 -
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years
3. Graphics - by Global Weather Oscillations (GWO)
Current Conditions and Analysis
Updated 14 April 2025
Find out when El Niño will end and what comes next
GWO's 2 year prediction pinpoints when changes will be taking place click here
most accurate and Consistent of any organization the past 10 years Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across most of the Pacific Ocean.
Click Images to Enlarge
- Sample -
Subsurface Temperatures
During a Delveloping
El Nino
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño. Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America. Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Past 4 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
The Equatorial Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 19 March 2025 to 09 March 2025 (from to bottom in the graphic above).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series from 19 March 2025 to 09 April 2025 (from to bottom in the graphic above) - the area of cooler than normal surface water (blue colors in top panel) has modified some during the past 4-weeks n response to the modification of the subsurface water below.
As explained in the Subsurface water temperature discussion - the warmer than normal subsurface water has not expanded eastward during the past 7 weeks - and thus the ENSO Neutral Conditions will continue.
As mentioned in our 2-year prediction - the primary ENSO event during 2025 will at times be a very weak La Nina event and at times Neutral Conditions.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into January 2027.
Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.
Click here for GWO's 2-year
predictions
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 10-years.
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean
El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures
Subsurface Temperatures
Tropical Pacific Ocean
Panels - Top to Bottom
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water up ell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water).
The panels from top to bottom from 17 February to 06 April 2025 - shows warmer than normal subsurface water remaining the same strength and area coverage in the Western Tropical Pacific.
Meanwhile - the colder than normal subsurface water across the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific has modified during the past 7 weeks.
ENSO Neutral Conditions are now occurring (halfway between El Nino and La Nina)
Global Weather Predicted months ago that it would transition to Neutral Conditions by April 2025.
GWO's 2-year ENSO prediction covers what will occur from May 2025 into May 2027.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Nino Region 3.4
East Central Tropical Pacific
Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
The Tropical Equatorial Pacific cooler than normal surface water temperatures are continuing to moderate due to the lack of colder water in the subsurface layers below.
Because the warmer than normal subsurface water in the Western Equatorial Pacific has not expanded eastward during the past 7 weeks, there will be little change during the next several months.
Expect ENSO Neutral Conditions to continue. GWO predicted several months ago that this would occur in April and then continue thereafter as ENSO Neutral Conditions but with some flirts to near weak El Nino.
ENSO Neutral Conditions - neither El Niño nor La Niña Ocean temperature anomalies will continue off and on during 2025 - Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2024
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Image to Enlarge
Click Images to Enlarge
Subsurface Temperatures
Tropical Pacific Ocean
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show much warmer than normal subsurface temperatures in (red) - warmer than normal (yellow and orange) and colder than normal (light blue to dark blue).
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically across the Central and Eastern Tropical Pacific - and then have the warmer than normal water upwell to the surface. The opposite scenario occurs as an El Nino ends (colder water)
During the period from 31 August to 15 October 2024 (top to bottom panels) -
the area of colder than normal subsurface water remained about the same during the past 6 weeks - and is not upwelling to the surface in the Eastern area of the Equatorial Pacific to the west of South American.
The lack of intensification and arial coverage has delayed upwelling of colder water to the surface - and thus has delayed the formation of a La Nina event.
GWO's 2-year ENSO prediction covers what will occur from November into December 2026.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
- Sample -
Subsurface Temperatures
During a Delveloping
El Nino
Panels - Top to Bottom
The panels above show the developing 2015 El Niño. Notice the warm subsurface water in the upper panel - and notice how it warmed over time and moved east toward South America.
For an El Niño to Form - the subsurface water must warm dramatically over the western and central Tropical South Pacific - and then move east toward South America. Once it reaches South American and upwells to the surface, an El Niño will be in place.
Find Out When the next
El Niño will begin - and end
click here for GWO's
2-year prediction.
Monitoring Region Niño 4 and 3.4
Typical Warm Phase El Niño
Equatorial South Pacific Ocean
Pacific Ocean Surface
Temperature Anomalies
Past 4 Weeks
Panels - Top to Bottom
The Tropical South Pacific surface water temperature anomalies during the past 4 weeks from 10 July 2024 to 31 July 2024 (from to bottom in the graphic below).
The yellow to red colors denote above normal warm water temperatures, the blue colors are the colder than normal surface water - dark blue shows areas of much below normal.
As noted in the time series below (from top to bottom), during the past 4-week from 21 August 2024 to 11 September 2024 - the area of cooler than normal surface water (blue colors in top panel) has not enlarged or strengthened due to the lack of upwelling of the colder than normal subsurface water below.
The Subsurface Water (left graphic) has strengthened and enlarged in area - but is not upwelling to the surface across much of the region. It is beginning to upwell to the surface in the east-central portion of the tropical equatorial area and upwelling will strengthen and enlarge in area during the period from late September into November.
Neutral ENSO conditions will continue late September into October with a transition to La Nina conditions around late October or November.
An ocean temperature cycle typically persists for 2 or 3 months and then transitions to another cycle - such as transitioning from warming to cooling and then back to warming.
GWO's 2-year prediction discusses changes that will occur into Junet of 2025.
Find Out with GWO's 2-year ESNO prediction.
Click here for GWO's 2-year
predictions
The most accurate prediction
by any organization
the past 10-years.
Nino Region 3.4
East Central Tropical Pacific
Surface" Ocean Temperatures
El Niño events develop in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific between the South American Coast and the Central South Pacific. This is called the Niño 3.4 Region.
The Tropical Equatorial Pacific surface water temperatures cooled during 2024 and is now moderating due to the expanding warmer than normal subsurface water in the Western Tropical Pacific.
The moderation in the Nino 3.4 region is due to the lack of cooler than normal water upwelling to the surface. This is why the La Niña will end and become ENSO Neutral Conditions by mid-March 2025.
ENSO Neutral Conditions - neither El Niño nor La Niña Ocean temperature anomalies will continue off and on during 2025 - Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
Find out what comes next - with GWO's 2-year prediction.
GWO has produced consistently accurate ENSO predictions from 2009 into 2024
El Niño La Niña
Warm Phase Cold Phase
Equatorial Pacific Ocean Temperatures
Overview: ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation
The three phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) typically cause changes in regional
weather patterns around the world - click here for more specific information.
El Niño phase (warm phase) occurs when the Tropical South Pacific Ocean surface and subsurface
water warm significantly above normal in the Eastern Pacific and along the South American Coast.
This phase typically causes increased precipitation in specific regions of the world, and in turn - drier
conditions in other regions.
La Niña phase (cold ocean water phase) is the complete opposite of the El Niño phase. The
typical conditions during an El Niño often flip-flop during the opposite phase of the El Niño - called the
Cold La Niña phase. During this phase the Tropical Pacific surface and subsurface water ocean water
is much colder than normal. This influences typical weather conditions around the world - opposite
of those conditions seen with an El Nino.
The third phase is called the Neutral phase and typically provides weather conditions that are
neither associated with the El Niño phase nor the La Niña Phase. Some regions of the world
also experience typical weather patterns for this phase of the ENSO.
